The new Paul Thomas Anderson film opens this weekend with a projected domestic take of $20 million to $25 million. International markets are expected to add another $25 million, bringing the worldwide debut to $50 million at the high end. If the film reaches these numbers it will become Anderson’s biggest opening ever, both in the United States and worldwide.
Why the Film Could Break Anderson Records
Anderson has earned eleven Oscar nominations, but his past releases have never matched a large opening. The best domestic weekend for an Anderson title was the 2009 release There Will Be Blood, which earned $4.8 million in its fifth week. One Battle After Another benefits from a bigger budget, a VistaVision shoot, and a decision to skip the fall festival circuit. Critics have given the picture a 98 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, adding confidence for early ticket buyers.
Marketing Power of Leonardo DiCaprio
Leonardo DiCaprio drives much of the buzz. He appears on talk shows, podcasts and late night programs, marking his first Tonight Show interview since 2006. DiCaprio’s name alone has helped previous films such as Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Killers of the Flower Moon open strong. Warner Bros expects his presence to push the opening toward $40 million, a figure similar to Anderson’s earlier collaboration with DiCaprio.
International Rollout and Competition
The picture will play on 17,000 screens worldwide. Japan, Korea and Turkey will receive the film a few weeks after the U.S. launch. France is likely to be a strong market, as French audiences often support Tarantino style titles. Warner Bros also releases a family film, Gabby’s Dollhouse, which targets $13 million to $15 million on 3,500 screens. Lionsgate will debut the horror sequel Strangers Chapter 2 on 2,650 locations, aiming for $6 million to $7 million.
Box Office Outlook
Even if the domestic start lands in the high teens, the film will still set a new personal best for Anderson. The movie’s budget sits below DiCaprio’s recent work with Martin Scorsese, making the financial risk more manageable for the studio. Advance ticket sales are strong in New York and Los Angeles, and preview screenings begin Thursday at 2 PM in over 3,200 sites, expanding to 3,500 theaters on Friday.
Potential Challenges
The film’s political tone may limit its appeal in certain regions. Some viewers may see the story as a clash between an anarchist and government forces. However, the action driven narrative and DiCaprio’s star power should help attract a broad audience.
Overall, One Battle After Another stands poised to become the highest grossing Anderson film. Its combination of strong marketing, a major star, and solid international distribution gives it a solid chance to meet or exceed the $50 million global target.
Source: Deadline
