This week the bad news for the HD DVD consortium just keep spinning horribly out of control. Not only did one of the few remaining studios to use their format (WB) announce they were going exclusively with Blu-Ray, but there are serious rumors that Apple is about to announce Blu-Ray players in their desktop computers, and there are even whispers now that Paramount may opt-out of their deal with HD DVD as well.
So it looks like Blu-Ray wins the day. Ok. But the bigger question is… does it really matter? The industry drastically overestimated how quickly the market would jump to adopt the HD standard. The vast majority of people still don’t have an HD system, or plan on getting one in the NEAR future (soon they won’t really have a choice).
Bill Gates (Microsoft has been behind the HD DVD format) made some statements the other day regarding the new developments of Blu-Rays impending victory, that on the surface just look like damage control and spin doctoring… but he may actually be correct. Cinematical gives us this:
“HD DVD did well over the holidays. The other trend we’re seeing is that direct download over broadband – I think the greatest example of that is XBox Live – (is) becoming an important choice. Over time, that will be the dominant way that people get their movies.”
So essentially what Bill is saying is: “Yeah, Blu-Ray wins… but it doesn’t matter, because all Disc technology is going to be irrelevant very soon and people will be downloading their movies”
Now, I’ve said for a while that we’re still a little ways off from that happening if for no other reason than broadband speeds still aren’t high enough for most people to want to get their movies that way. But the time IS coming, and since I don’t think that Blu-Ray beating out HD DVD will cause many more people to quickly adopt HD systems, Bill may very well be correct.
Many people I know don’t ever plan on getting an HD system and are planning on just waiting for downloads. Personally… now that the fight seems to be over, I think I am going to get a Blu-Ray player… but I can see where the non-adopters are coming from too.
So what do you think? Does Blu-Ray winning the HD disc battle actually mean anything? Will you now get a system? Or is it all irrelevant?
– I don’t have a hd tv yet
– I would get in to digital downloads except for the DRM issues, which I hate
– DVDs are so cheap that I don’t see why I should pay out ‘yet’ after all the cinema is still the biggest screen out.
Blu-ray winning is far from irrelavent, very far.
Fo some reason it seems the few who shout there mouths about digital downloads, are exactly that, “the few”
What you need to realise is that half the world dosent have the infrastructure or capabilities to download Movies, let alone HD movies, let alone even know about digital downloads.
Add that to the fact that people in general still infact prefer to have something pysical and permenant.
I have no doubt that one day, digital media will take hold, but that day is along way away.
There are many years of profit to be made before that day comes.
The biggest downside of blu-ray winning at such an early stage is that competition is all but vanished.
In the future we are likely to see hardware prices continue to fall, but not as rapidly, and offers on the discs are likely to be significantly smaller as will price cuts.
The BDA nows has its eye firmly focused on DVD, its a battle that I dont see them winning unless they force it upon the public, which is a really bad idea and will work againt the industry, not fuel it.
All I wont now is the superdupa blu-ray LOTR trilogy boxset to be released along with Pirates blu-ray boxset, so I can put my newly converted home cinema/gaming room to proper use.
I realise we here talk about the movie industry, but to be honest, if we’d took a step back at the beginning of all this, and looked at the overall current and future capabilities of blu-ray in all media and data areas, we would have seen the superior product alot earlier, and realised blu-ray was always the better and deserves to win.
Blu-ray isnt a stepping stone, its the future for disc storage and the deserved winner.
If there’s one thing I don’t like about direct downloads is that there’s no longer any physical media. For example, if my brother wanted to borrow season 3 of Battlestar Galactica, he couldn’t because now he has to download the entire season. And if he has a medium speed connection (like 768 kbps DSL), then it’s going to take him all night or if 1080p HD, probably a week.
This is why I’ll always prefer physical media over direct downloads. Direct downloads may also have DRM leading up to the point where I could only watch the episode 3 times. I sometimes watch Seinfeld or South Park episodes over 10 times each and with DRM, I lose that ability to watch something over and over and over.
just because u have a high definition tv dosent mean ur dvds r in hd. u actually need a bluray player to get ur movies in hd and yes it is a big difference.
I totally agree with the Sith Muppet. I personally know a lot of people who just got DVD players in the last 3 or 4 years and are no where ready to upgrade to a new format.
And maybe it’s just me, but the jump between VHS to DVD included massive picture quality differences as well as 5.1 sound, special features and consistent quality.
The change to any HD format just isn’t that big for most people to see it. So what, the blacks are really dark. Not a big enough difference from the high quality 1080p up conversion on my TV. I have no idea what the actual stat is, but out most the people I know only about 20 per cent of them actually have the High-Def hardware to make any difference.
I think the real questions is, the war is over but other than the handful PS3 owners, who cares?
As I’ve said many times before… it was simply waaaaay too soon to introduce any kind of new DVD format. I got on board the DVD wagon back in 98(I think I payed around $400 for my first player), but most of the people I know have only upgraded from VHS to DVD in the last two or three years.
Like John, most of the people I know have already said that they won’t upgrade to HD unless the studios stop producing Standard def all together(there simply isn’t a large enough jump in quality from SD to HD). I seriously doubt standard def is going away any time soon.
In the foreseeable future, downloading movies is more of a competition to video rentals than High Def Media. And regarding adoption, Blu-ray has more players and software sold in 18 months than DVD did in 18 months.
At this point people want to own something (physical), and current and upcoming download services (including XBox Live) are all rental services which remove the movie after 24 hours. Not to mention the movies are “only” 720p and have low bitrates/audio. Thats fine for rentals, but for movies you wish to own consumers want the best (1080p + bonus features, physical disc).
We are still many years away from having the infrastructure, storage, speeds, and consumer mindset to have mass downloading become mainstream. MP3s have been around for over 10 years and they still haven’t killed CDs. Downloadable movies won’t kill Blu-ray either, at least not in the next 5 years.
One day, you won’t be able to tell the difference between a downloadable movie and a Blu-ray movie, and the download movie will play isntantly. But that day is many years off.
Muppet Man ain’t going anywhere near a HD player of any kind(especially BR) until the prices on the players drop dramatically. BR also has some serious issues that need to be worked out.
Ehhh… Standard Def is fine for the time being. Most dvd players these days come with HDMI up conversion anyway.
It’s sad really. BR may end up being the more quality product(once all the bugs get worked out), but HD-DVD was waaaaay more consumer friendly.
Downloading movies won’t dominate until every home owns a capable computer, broadband net, and a 500 gig or more hard drive. Don’t forget a 37 plus inch monitor to watch them on. Oh but wait. They will need to be able to watch a different movie in any room of the house. So that means a separate computer or hard drive mech for each TV. Oh and that’s right, a separate computer to download while watching a movie.
Does any one really believe the middle or low income family is going to invest in that hardware. Or put in the time to learn how to do all this. Because even if they could. There is still isn’t enough trust in computer operating systems.
Just because we are on the net and some of us are downloading movies, doesn’t mean everyone is.
I am working on my computer now. My wife is in the same room watching a movie. In order to do what everyone is describing, I would need a computer and TV for her to watch her movie, and a separate computer and TV for what I am doing. When my son comes home, he may want to watch something in his room. So then I would need a third computer and TV.
It’s all about convenience and the lowest common denominator. That individual wants to buy a movie for $5 while shopping for groceries. Come home put it in their $30 DVD player. Walk into the next room and finish watching it while in bed. Maybe some one else will want to come home and watch it in the other room. If it’s really good, let a friend bower it.
Not to mention. With a digital download, I won’t get a decorative packaging or tin. A poster, booklet, or animation cel reprints.
Until I can digitize my whole life like Tron, I don’t see the download only age happening in my life time.
Actually John speeds aren’t bad at all, over XBox live I can download a 720p movie in about an hour, and most TV show in 15 to 30 minutes, the only real problems are that you can’t keep the films you download, there’s a limit hard drive space available on the Xbox 360 console, and truth is, a lot of people can’t stand not having a physical copy of their movies, and you don’t get all the goodies everyone love DVDs for (ie. Commentary, Behind the Scenes, Bloopers etc.)
If the war is over then it’s both a good and bad thing. It’s good in that there isn’t anymore question which to invest in.
But the bad part is really bad. Blu-Ray winning means prices won’t drop as fast. Regardless of which format you prefer, it can’t be denied that competition was what fueled all these sales on movies and price slashes on players. Cut out competition and the market stops dropping prices and the consumer gets accustomed to the current prices.
I posted like a year ago that this would happen and here we are. Mega drives for DIVX format are already available in 500GB for less than a Blue Ray player and they are only getting cheaper.
Today in the states Comcast announced 6000 free new movies on their cable system.
Downloading from the internet is perfectly legal in Spain and Switzerland and most of Europe has given up hunting down people because it is just unstoppable.
Digital is the future. Blue Ray and DVD Disks are going to join vinyl and CDs very shortly.
Sounds like Bill Gates is a sore loser…
I agree, I want to own my movies, so downloads don’t appeal to me so much. In regard to people not owning an HD system, it’s because most people were waiting for a single format to win before they spent a bunch off money on soon-to-be-outmoded technology. I guarantee we will see a huge spike in Blu-Ray sales over the next few months as a result of Warner’s defection.
Yipee, says I!
Already there – waiting for you slowpokes to catch up!
I think it will be quite a while before we have direct download HD content ready for the masses. I think we have enough time to adopt to an interim format and not have it be a waste of money.
I’m against soley downloading media.
I prefer to spend my money and have something physical to hold in my hands.
I have a massive amount of DVDs now and I like buying my movies from a video outlet the day it is released rather than downloading it over the net. That’s just me.
This news couldn’t be better, now I can go out and pick up a Blu-Ray system without feeling like a dumbass.
Hmmm. To be honest, I’ve never liked the idea of direct-download movies. For me, unwrapping a dvd and popping into the player is still a fun experience! It’s sad I know…but I have a large dvd collection and don’t want that to go away…*cry*
I just don’t entirely trust technology to keep all my stuff without ‘misplacing’ it etc.
That said…I don’t really buy CD’s anymore.
I will get me a blu-ray player once nothing comes out on regular dvd. I’m happy with one side winning as this should drive down dvd prices :)
although… “dya wanna come round and watch a blu-ray?” doesn’t have much of a ring to it…