How Much Will Superman Make Opening Weekend?
Posted by John Campeaon 27. 06. 2006in News Chat
Prediction time boys and girls. The question is simple. Including it’s early Wednesday opening… how much will Superman Returns make in it’s opening weekend?
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For the record, I’m calling for over $100 million easy.
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John Campea who has written 6783 posts on The Movie Blog
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A small part of me really thinks it can hit $100 mill but the realist in me says about it will make about $85 mill. That’s just for the first three days though. God only knows what the five day total is gonna be.
The 5 day total is easily going to be over 100 million, I say 116 million because thats what Aquaman made. (raise your hand if you got that)
nord
If it can’t break $100 mill by Monday then its in big trouble. I put it closer to $120.
*Raises hand*
Hey Nord,
Now I feel dumb and left out. I don’t get it. :(
LOL
Inside joke for Entourage fans, I F’ing love that show, if you havent seen it you should make a point to sit down and watch Season 1 and 2, funny funny stuff and its all about the movie biz.
I Dont want to give much away other than to say someone makes Aquaman the movie.
Its produced by Marky Mark and loosely based on his life, funny funny stuff man, highly recomended.
nord
I agree with Lou, if it doesn’t make $100m then it is in serious trouble because Captain Jack is sailing in soon to take away a large chunk of Supes’ box office
5 day total? CLEARLY over 100 mil…the movie would be a joke otherwise……
Captain Jack vs. Superman……clearly the pirate wins (What? You didn’t know his sword is made of Kryptonite?)
$120 BY FRIDAY, i think it just break spider-mans BO reaign for opening day, BUT, it’s a weds so alot of people may wait til this weekend and next week to get away from the crowds,(my dad), thats my 2 cents
With a majority of the IMAX shows sold out for the weekend here (NYC) and probably elsewhere, is $135-$145m possible?
I cast my vote in for 165 mil for the five day total, call me crazy if ya like.
A friend of mine works for Nielsen Media Research, the company that does all the TV ratings. They also do box office predictions, and I believe he says their estimates always come within $5 million. I believe it too, cause he told us the predictions for Da Vinci and X-Men, and a couple of days later when the numbers came out they were almost dead-on.
I was completely shocked when he said they were estimating the 5-day haul for Superman at a measly $70 million. It sounds extremely low to me, but that’s what he said they were estimating. Says people are hesitant about this movie.
Personally I’d looking at $100M.
I call for 90-100 million for the fri-sun total
Is this poll/bet/prediction really needed?
Is the post really needed?
Come n, John Campea, you didn’t even NEED to say it.
It is a no-brainer.
The real question?
Can I find a decent parking space and/or seat?
Superman Returns rules. Entourage is an awesome show. Good stuff.
well I say 85 million from friday to saterday because of the wed. opening so 5 day total I will say 120 mil min 130 more likely but personally I want sith numbers of 150 mil plus. The 150 would be Ideal cause a second week drop of over 50% is inevitable due too pirates 2 but word or mouth will definetly help this film.
If anyone is interested, Moriarty wrote a really great review over at http://www.aintitcoolnews.com and I think it is one of the best he has ever written. Written by a true fan who really inderstands the mythos of Supes.
The review also echoes a lot of the concerns I have with this movie. Even though I love the idea of Singer directing, I had my reservations from the start with the weak trailers that were released. If this movie proves to be a homage with weak plot points I will be very disappointed. I did not want a homage but a reinvention, the same way Batman was reinvented so that the saga could begin anew.
I will still go see it, but I am worried.
The movie will be a smash anyway, and it will make it’s 100 million this weekend. But that won’t male it me feel any better if it disappoints.
I’ve waited a long time for this, don’t disappoint.
If anyone is interested, Moriarty wrote a really great review over at http://www.aintitcoolnews.com and I think it is one of the best he has ever written. Written by a true fan who really inderstands the mythos of Supes.
The review also echoes a lot of the concerns I have with this movie. Even though I love the idea of Singer directing, I had my reservations from the start with the weak trailers that were released. If this movie proves to be a homage with weak plot points I will be very disappointed. I did not want a homage but a reinvention, the same way Batman was reinvented so that the saga could begin anew.
I will still go see it, but I am worried.
The movie will be a smash anyway, and it will make it’s 100 million this weekend. But that won’t male it me feel any better if it disappoints.
I’ve waited a long time for this, don’t disappoint.
Well, as much as you promote it on this blog, I’m sure it’ll break $100 million fairly quickly.
Why didn’t you ask the same question of X3, Batman Begins or Fantastic Four?
In 5 days, will be more than 100 million, and maybe more to beat X3 movie.
Although I have no interest in Superman, I still say it will over 100 million.
Low 70s. Maybe 71, 72. I think that as much as people are excited about this movie, they’re also a bit worried about it, and the reviews aren’t helping.
I just read Ebert’s review (http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060626/REVIEWS/60606009) which, combined with what Moriarty said at AICN, makes me a little nervous about tomorrow night. These are two reviewers I respect enormously, basically saying that this movie is just alright, but not great.
Back to the topic of opening weekend, I think most people who are unsure if they want to see this movie (seemingly a lot) will wait to see what the concensus is after this weekend.
Prediction: $71-75 million.
Hey Nord, speaking of Entourage (which is an HBO TV show), my favorite TV series at the moment is Deadwood. That is the shit!!!
for the above comment L J, becus think about it this way. If you have no had sex in like 19-20 years, and you are finliny going to get laid, how backed up do you think you are going to be, and when it does then BOOM!!
you just made a big mess. It;s the same way with the movie, poeple have been waiting for yrs for thi to hit the screen agian and when it comes out this week, it’s going to expole with excitement, and man it is going to big big, thats why he asked it with this movie. it’s going to be big, but we will see. hope that answers your question,
great show John keep it up..
The problem with your answer Jarrod is that there is just not that many people.
Outside of geekdom the general public have not been waiting for this the way people were for, say,the prequels.
I have been reading people predicting phantom menace type numbers on some sites and that is just ridiculous. the anticipation for a new superman film is nowhere near as big as it was for the prequels.
I am sure this film will do great this weekend. But it won’t have legs as unfortunately pirates is going to clean up next weekend.
Superman will ultimately finish with around 200 domestic all up.
There is just not a huge hunger for this film outside of geekdom. Most people don’t seem to give a shit. to them it is just another comic book movie. The general public are anticipating jack sparrows return more than they are supermans.
Sad but true.
I just saw it (did anyone else?)
In a word: Blockbuster.
Amazingly touching and inspiring. Wonderful emotional pull – had to fight back tears (I’m a guy). Won’t spoil it, but there are a few surprises…
Brandon as Superman is this role than Reeves, plain and simple. Fun heroics, incredible set design and realistic special effects, great orchestral score throughout, awe-inspiring opening sequence, Spacey is deviously delightful as Luther without being over the top as say, Jim Carrey, solid supporting performances…just can’t say enough good things.
Finally, a movie you can feel good about seeing!
Oh, and keeping with the post, prediction it does between $75 and $100 mill, but then has tremendous legs as word gets around.
ok, you may have a piont harold, but the first movie was for the ggeeks too, and it insane amonut of money, now you can not tell me that was all geeks, not enuff, so it had to be outside people who were loving the shows back in the day. but you may be right aout the “comic” book movie becuz of the expoletion of these movies. if it were the only movie like this , stand alone like it was back in 78, then i guess it would blow up more, anyway i guess we wait and see.
Jarrod-
I saw on CNN that it has to make 600 million just to break even. Ouch.
Jesus Age Christ
If this movie needed to make 600 million, it should have been a May release, cause Pirates is seriously going to take a chunk of that dough. On the same hand I really need to brush up on my math because if a movie costs 204 million to make where does this 600 number come from and dont tell me its 400 million dollar marketing campaign.
nord
here is how it works…as I understand it
when a film costs 200 million if it makes 200 million at the box office it has not broken even. not even close. the studios don’t get every dollar spent on tickets…..the theatres take their cut and their cut is no small change so generally studios have to make about 2 and a half times the budget at the box office just to break even.
so for superman returns the production is rumoured to have cost 250 million. that is pure production costs. that does not include marketing nor does it include the close to 40 million they spent developing it over the past few years.(plus people always say in terms of big budget films take what ever figure the studio give and add 50 mill)
So already you are at close to 300 million.
The marketing budget will be ridiculous but for big films like these marketing costs are genrally covered in opart by all the licensing deals struck and marketuing partner ships with certian products.
Studios traditionally have not really cared that much about overseas grosses outside of the huge huge films. they only cared about the domestic as that is where they get the big dollars. domestic is where the get the biggest cut of theatre takings.
but the whole business has changed and now they are interested in the overseas markets more than ever. they spend more on overseas advertising then ever before because while the domestic BO has dropped worldwide has actually been growing. because of this they have changed their deals with a lot of overseas distributors to make sure they get a bigger slice of the overseas money.
So warners will be praying for it to make at the least 500-550 mill at the BO as it will do gangbusters on dvd so if they can hit over 500 mill they are going to at least break even.
Well, I just read an interview with Singer and he said he was budgeted for 180 million and then there was one extra scene he wanted which bumped it to exactly 204 million (24 million for one scene, the studios love Bryan Singer for true)
But thanks for the break down, that makes more sense to me now.
Even if they only break even, it just the cost of doing business, they are kick starting a 20 year old franchise, Im sure they will be much more frugal with the sequel.
nord
Is this even a fair barometer of a successful opening, given that the opening “weekend” is going to be 5 friggin days long?!?
In America, this holiday “weekend” includes Monday and Tuesday too! (July 4th Independence Day)