Everyone seems to think that The Da Vinci Code is going to be a major run away blockbuster monster this weekend. I’ve herd some analysts predicting $70+ million for opening weekend. That’s a guarantee right? Don’t bet on it.
Something I’ve learned over the last almost 3 years of doing The Movie Blog, is that you should NEVER underestimate the power of a family film when no other family films are opening at the same time. The new 3D animated family film “Over the Hedge” is opening against Da Vinci on Friday… it’s getting really good buzz… and will be the only family film out there this weekend. This is NOT good news for Da Vinci.
Don’t get me wrong, Da Vinci will MAKE MONEY! it will also make BIG money. But the studio folks couldn’t have been happy when they realized that Hedge was going to be opening against it. You can bank on this… Over the Hedge is going to seriously cut into Da Vinci’s money. Da Vinci Code will win the weekend… and win it by a lot… but Over the Hedge is going to make at least $20 million this weekend… and about $15 million of that WOULD have gone to Da Vinci.
I’ll be curious to track the numbers after the weekend.
Am I right? Am I way off? Leave your opinion in the comments section.
See, John? You were wrong. I said $70+ mil for DaVinci and $40 for OTH. DaVinci did $77, OTH did $37. Suck it, Johnboy.
you know, code has sort of an in between core audience – not young, not old. and poor reviews affect what that aud thinks (whereas teens don’t give a damn about bad reviews – watch what x-men does despite its lousy reviews). there may be a sizable shift in those who were planning to see code in the theater – they may just put it off and take the kids to see something fun, that would be ‘over the hedge’. then, plan ‘b’ for tired parents – get code on disc and watch it some night while the kids are sleeping over with the neighbor’s kids.
makes a lot of sense. if you’re thirty-something you don’t want to see a talky slow movie that critics are (literally) laughing at (see reports from cannes premiere – and you sure as hell don’t want to take your kids to see code. so…plan ‘b’ – take kids to fun movie that adults can enjoy too, catch code on disc over a period of a couple weeks – 5 or 10 minutes at a time
yeah, oth looks very sharp. tdvc is looking weaker by the minute. code’s first weekend should be okay, but subsequent weekends are shakey. i think oth is this year’s first (good) summer movie. frankly, i’d love to see oth do very well.
next weekend x-men opens. it’s getting panned pretty bad too, but i’ll bet it takes a huge chunk of box office – and oth will have legs. this may leave code out in the cold
you have to admit it doesn’t look great three or four weeks down the road for the code
so it’s not every post that deal with boxoffice numbers…but you do spend a LOT of time talking about it…
i just don’t see why you find those damn numbers so interesting…
but fair enough…you see it as an important thing as a film fan…i don’t…it’s all good…
Hey Cabbe,
You’re right… of the last 32 posts, there is 1 post about the significance of the Boxoffice numbers. Wow… you really nailed us.
Oh, and if you don’t think boxoffice numbers directly reflect interest film fans have in any given project… then that’s just bein naieve.
The reason I look at box office numbers is because it gives us a look at what sorts of movies the general movie going public is interested in. What caught their attention? What made them want to go to the theater?
Big box office doesn’t mean good movie… bad box office doesn’t mean bad movie… but IT DOES reflect what interested us as film fans. And that is more than worth discussing once every 20-30 posts.
If you can’t see the connection… then I’m not sure how to help you.
~John
this site should be renamed “the box office blog”…since it’s all that you guys ever talk about…who cares if a movie is actually good or bad…the important thing is how much money it makes…that’s how you judge if a movie is good! ehhhhh
Looks like the reviews, here is a link to McCarthy’s from Variety- http://www.variety.com/VE1117930534.html – find the movie dull. Should open big and die bigger.
I also heard that the screening for critics in cannes really didn’t go down well at all (public laughed at “serious” moments of the film, and there was some light booing during the closing credits).
OK, we are talking about the movie press that goes to Cannes (not really the popcorn movie crowd), but it could give a hint.
Seems like in Europe, press screenings are happening the day before release – a bad sign, in Campea’s book, and I agree…
I have read the book and found it entertaining, if somewhat lacking in style and character development – could be the problem of the movie as well: all plot twists and no good acting.
Mr Stay Puft has a good point. I haven’t heard anything, good or bad about this movie so for the last 15 minutes, I’ve been doing a web search for reviews and nothing comes up. This seems kind of odd considering that it opens nation wide on Friday.
Ice Age 2: Mediocre movie at best. 70 million opening. Little competition.
OTH: From pretty good to very good so far. Big competition. STill 40 million easly while blind folded. Come on people. Just follow the pattern.
JoJo said:
“Once again, John makes a fool of himself.”
Hmmm… interesting statement. When exactly have I EVER been wrong? (that is quantifiable and not just opinion)
:P
Cheers!
~John
Once again, John makes a fool of himself. Man, you’re really going out on a limb saying Over the Hedge will make $20 million, aren’t you? Try $40 million, possibly a bit more. Da Vinci will bring in $70+ million, and might well get to $90 million. Remember this post on Sunday morning when the estimates come in.
A common misconception is that “the religious folk” won’t see the film. Code is entirely fiction, and most know this. Furthermore, to some, it is an opportunity to be open about one’s faith and a discussion is therefore ‘open’ regarding the truths of the Bible.
Besides, I’d be more concerned with that horror film that has some axe-carring mass murderer spewing scriptures while hacking teenager’s arms off. Which is more offensive?
(the horror flick, which most likely did not cost more than 30 million, may not bode well vs. Hedge or Vinci, but it’ll make the blood money back)
As to John’s prediction? Blah blah blah. Look- MI and Piss-edon took in roughly 20-25 million a piece. It’s easy to say that the hyped up to the hilt Vinci will be #1 this weekend and Hedge will fall in no. #2. But … if any of you really want to be bold, and John Campea can get out his scorecard for next Moday AE: challenge him right now, make your prediction. Then he can say ‘see I told you so’ or he can eat a plate of crow,
However, it is a rather easy prediction to make. Here’s mine:
Vinci will have a domestic take of $60 -65 million.
Hedge will be…slightly lower than 20 million. I’d go between 15-17 opening in fact.
That said, am I “really’ disagreeing with John? Not…really. I do think though, that Hollywood mentality will sadly prevail. If DaVinci makes 60-65, it’s under 70, thus “a disappointment’ to Hollywood. Maybe some will think Hedge will cut into DaVinci tickets, as John suggests. This is where I will disagree -and pay attention John- although at the same time it will be very hard to prove UNLESS the two films are neck and neck.
In other words, let’s say DaVinci makes 50mil in order for Hedge to really make a dent, it would have to do at least 35mil. Bottom line : there will have to be a 15 million difference *at least* between the two. If this happens, then John Campea will be correct. **But not** if the gap is 20 million or more. If that were so, whatever ‘See No Evil’ (and the title appears to make the proper request) were to make, say, 3 mil. Was that 3 mil hijacked from DaVinci or Hedge? What will the third week of “MI” take away from the new slate of films?
See, now it gets silly. There is no possible way “Hedge” can take away from “DaVinci” unless both box office domestic takes are within 15 million of each other, if not a smaller margin. But if you go by John’s post, where he says Hedge will be around 20m, then DaVinci would HAVE to open with 35 million domestic. If the margin is wider than that, then John Campea will be wrong *but only* regarding Hedge biting out of DaVinci’s cookie. Or just for arguement, let’s say half. If DaVinci does 50m (estimate) domestic then Hedge is 25 m (estimate). I’ll give him that.
But if DaVinci makes 60 or higher and Hedge does 20…then Campea is wrong, but he’ll say he’s right because chances are DaVinci will most likely make just under 70 and, given the recent pictures, it’s not a stretch to think Hedge will get around 20.
Please note I do not disagree with him on this. All that I disagree with him on is that Hedge will be any threat to DaVinci. I’ll say it one more time: at least half.
– 777
SLR
I just read that “The DaVinci Code” got a poor reception at Cannes. I also noticed that there were no reviews up yet at Rotten Tomatoes. Has this movie been screened for critics? Maybe it will be the next “Bonfire of the Vanities” (also starring Tom Hanks).
I’ll see them both on DVD. Just kidding, ill take my son to OTH and i’ll probably catch a late show of Davinci. Which i thought was a great read.
We’re going to see both…
Over The Hedge with “The Boy” (21 months old) and then, for our anniversary, Davinci Code with “The Wif”…
I really want to see the DaVinci Code, but since Over the Hedge is also coming out, I will probably take the wife and kids to it instead. I think they will both make big money.
I’m with you, John. Family films rule. DaVinci Code rests with Howard. This is his first controversial movie, all the others have been pretty tame in content, except for the Tommy Lee Jones western – the name escapes me, and it bombed.
I heard that the dude who plays the Pope is the same guy who plays Khan and they cloned Tattoo to play Silas’ sidekick…oh, nevermind the Pope isn’t in this movie, something about crapping in the woods.
I agree with John on this one, but I also agree with Mr Stay Puft, I think OTH will have something closer to 30 million.
Why? because John is right, OTH whether done on purpose or not, is the perfect counter programming for Da Vinci, if nothing else opened but Da Vinci I would say upwards of 60+ million, but OTH will seriously cut into that, every right wing conservative religious family in the grand ol’ US of A will snub Da Vinci for the family movie. This will be two Titans battling it out….with Da Vinci the winner, but OTH a close second.
nord
I agree with John. I expect “Over the Hedge” to take in closer to $30M and actually compete for the top spot with DaVinci. If the weather continues to f@#&ing suck here in New England parents will opt for a family film. I know I will. Even with a PG-13, DaVinci is not going to appeal to teens or young adults as much as it needs to to be a blockbuster.
The Da Vinci Code will make big bucks. It’s a very controversial amongst religious groups, which sparks peoples intrest inculding book readers to see this movie. I, myself will be seeing Da Vinci Code this Friday. I have not read the book but the idea of this controversial topic has sparked my intrest to go.
I got to agree with Jonh on this. Over The Hedge will make $20mil+ this weekend.
I completely agree. I think Hedge is going to cut into Da Vinci’s box office money and I think $15M is an accurate number.
Yes, Da Vinci is going to be a big powerhouse of a movie over the next couple of weeks but I’m still really ticket off at how such a crappy book could grow to this status. It’s not a completely new story and as far as Brown’s books are concerned, I liked the story behind “Angels and Demons” much better (I’ll forgo saying anything about the actual writing) but this book has taken on a life of it’s own. Best seller for how many GD years??? And now this monstrous blockbuster? The movie does look better than the book ever was but I’m not sure that’s really enough to attract those of us (and there’s a lot of us) who think the book is shite. Personally, I refuse to put my money out during the first few weeks. I know they’re two different things but to me, they’re all part of the Dan Brown machine and I refuse to take part.
Sorry for the rant. It just sort of spewed out.
Never underestimate James T. Kirk disguised as a small, furry animal.
Good point John. It would not surprise me, given the fact that if I do get to see a flick this weekend, it’ll be OTH with my kids.
Well it sure won’t stop Da Vinci taken a huge sum of cash in other parts of the world looking at its heavily staggered release dates. http://uk.imdb.com/title/tt0327084/releaseinfo
Also if you look what else is out this week for the UK there is nothing that can compete with the blanket advertising and hype surrounding Vinci.
~Sam
Hey Tyler,
I see where you’re coming from. My point is that if OTH does indeed make $20+ million, you can’t tell me a good amount of that wouldn’t have been partents going to see Da Vinci instead if Hedge wasn’t opening that they could take their kids too.
Cheers!
Da Vinci is going to be a difficult film to predict box office returns for. There are people who loved the book, and people who hated the book, but everyone knows what it is, and some people wo are too lazy to read it may want to see it, but at the same time, it has bad blood with several radical religious groups.
For every positive, there is a negative.
I don’t think Over the Hedge is going to be particularly successful. I think people are slowly falling off of the “3D computer animation (that isn’t Pixar)” bandwagon. However, after Poseidon’s flop, and Mission: Impossible III’s solid but still short opening. See? It’s gonna be tough. I wouldn’t be surprised if it hit that high, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to only see 40 mil.
Da Vinci is going to be a difficult film to predict box office returns for. There are people who loved the book, and people who hated the book, but everyone knows what it is, and some people wo are too lazy to read it may want to see it, but at the same time, it has bad blood with several radical religious groups.
For every positive, there is a negative.
I don’t think Over the Hedge is going to be particularly successful. I think people are slowly falling off of the “3D computer animation (that isn’t Pixar)” bandwagon. However, after Poseidon’s flop, and Mission: Impossible III’s solid but still short opening. See? It’s gonna be tough. I wouldn’t be surprised if it hit that high, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to only see 40 mil.
Of course not. Over the Hedge is a guaranteed money maker. I just don’t agree that it’s going to affect The Da Vinci code as much. You say about $15 mill of the money Hedge makes would have gone to Da Vinci. You could technically say that about any two films opening at the same time, really. But these are two completely different films with very different audiences. Da Vinci will be a huge hit undoubtedly, but “Shatner” and Hedge won’t be stealing money away from it.
Execs for Da Vinci shouldn’t be afraid of Over The Hedge at all. You can’t treble about a much anticipated blockbuster film opening against a CGI film no one wanted which just so happens to star has-been Shatner.
That said, maybe OTH will be huge. You’re right about not being able to predict the power of family films. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Sorry, but I don’t agree, and the sensationalist title didn’t help. ;)
Of course not. Over the Hedge is a guaranteed money maker. I just don’t agree that it’s going to affect The Da Vinci code as much. You say about $15 mill of the money Hedge makes would have gone to Da Vinci. You could technically say that about any two films opening at the same time, really. But these are two completely different films with very different audiences. Da Vinci will be a huge hit undoubtedly, but “Shatner” and Hedge won’t be stealing money away from it.
Execs for Da Vinci shouldn’t be afraid of Over The Hedge at all. You can’t treble about a much anticipated blockbuster film opening against a CGI film no one wanted which just so happens to star has-been Shatner.
That said, maybe OTH will be huge. You’re right about not being able to predict the power of family films. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Sorry, but I don’t agree, and the sensationalist title didn’t help. ;)
Well… consider the fact that I only post these things when I’m pretty damn sure about it… and the fact that I’ve never been wrong (well… at least about the stuff I’m brave enough to post about). :)
So Tyler… are you saying Over the Hedge WON’T take at least $20 million from the box office this weekend?
Cheers!
Oh, and I don’t think this will happen.
Campea, do you just write these posts just so that if by luck, it happens, you can scream that you got it right in the Audio Editions?